Coface Group
Mexico

Mexico

Population 121,006 million
GDP per capita 9 452 US$
B
Country risk assessment
A4
Business Climate
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Synthesis

MAJOR MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS

  2013 2014 2015 2016 (f)  2017 (f)
GDP growth (%) 1.4 2.2 2.5 1.8 1.5
Inflation (yearly average) (%) 3.8 4.0 2.7 3.2 3.5
Budget balance (% GDP) -3.7 -4.6 -4.1 -3.2 -3.0
Current account balance (% GDP) -2.5 -2.1 -2.9 -2.9 -2.8
Public debt (% GDP) 46.4 49.5 54.0 56.0 56.1

 

(e) Estimate (f) Forecast

STRENGTHS

  • Geographic proximity to the North American economy
  • Membership of NAFTA, OECD, the G20 and the Pacific Alliance 
  • Renewal of the flexible credit line by the IMF until January 2017
  • Substantial industrial base
  • World class in cement, beer and telephony sectors

WEAKNESSES

  • Dependence on the United States economy
  • Low oil and gas dominated government revenues
  • Infrastructure and education weaknesses
  • High crime rate 

RISK ASSESSMENT

The uncertainty surrounding future US trade policy is holding back growth

In 2016, domestic demand was the main driving force for the growth in the Mexican economy thanks to easier access to credit and increased remittances from workers abroad, whilst exports did not benefit from the depreciation of the peso against the dollar because of the slowdown in activity in the United States (the leading customer). In 2017, growth is expected to remain fairly weak because of uncertainties around possible protectionist measures concerning its trade with the United States. The possible imposition of a 35% tax on Mexican exports to the US market, as talked about by President-Elect Donald Trump, would be a serious threat to the competitiveness of the Mexican manufacturing industry, as almost 80% of its exports go there. In the meantime, private investment is likely to fall as domestic and foreign investors wait and see. Public Investment will also remain restrained thanks to the budget cuts resulting from the low level of government revenues because of reduced oil and gas revenues, despite the gradual rise in prices. Household consumption should feel the benefits of the expected increase in remittances from Mexican workers living, mostly, in the United States, but will remain limited by the gradual raising of interest rates intended to keep inflation down. This is likely to increase under the impact of the depreciation of the peso, but will remain within the target range (3-4%) set by the Central Bank.

 

Prudent budget policy

In 2017, Mexico is expected to follow a prudent budget policy because of the reduced level of revenues coming from the energy sector, despite the gradual upturn in oil prices. The government is hoping to make up for the decline in public investment spending by means of increased public-private partnerships, as evidenced by the opening of the capital of PEMEX, the national oil and gas company which will bear the brunt of the investment cuts. The government is also examining the application of a fiscal responsibility law on the local States. This sets limits for the issuing of debt (only public investment and debt refinancing will now be possible). This prudent policy should limit the use of debt. In terms of monetary policy, the uncertainties relating to the future policies that will be applied by President Trump are likely to feed the volatility of the Mexican peso in 2017. The central bank is expected to continue intervening in the currency markets to prevent any excessive fall in the currency against the dollar and ensure that inflation remains within its target range (3-4%). The risks in terms of exchange rates should remain limited thanks to the considerable buffer provided by the country’s currency reserves, estimated at 17% of GDP. Finally, Mexico can use the flexible credit line granted for a two year period by the IMF in May 2016 (8% of GDP), in the event of a major external shock.
The current account deficit is expected to hold relatively stable compared with 2016. Exports, mainly consisting of manufactured goods, as well as oil and gas, are expected to continue benefiting from favoured access to the North American market during the year. The deficit in services should remain widely steady, despite a slight boost to tourist revenues, whilst the income deficit (mostly because of the withdrawal of profits by multinationals) will remain high. The balance of transfers should improve thanks to the growth in remittances from workers in the United States.

 

Foreign policy will remain the priority for President Peña Nieto in 2017

In 2017, the Mexican government is likely to concentrate on its negotiations with the United States which is threatening to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and to increase the rate of expulsions of Mexican citizens living illegally in the United States. Although the NAFTA contains effective mechanisms for settling disputes and defines the measures of retortion, Mexico has very little choice but to accept decisions made in the United States given the level of the country’s dependence on the United States. It is far and away the biggest partner for Mexico in terms of trade (80% of its exports go there) and investments, as well as being the leading source of remittances from Mexican workers abroad (around 12 million Mexicans live in the United States legally). Mexico also depends on the United States for military aid and information in the struggle against the drug cartels. In terms of domestic politics, the government is expected to continue its program of structural reforms adopted at the end of 2012. Following an initial tender call which failed to arouse much enthusiasm among investors, the reform of the energy market has proven more promising, with highly successful second and third phases. Further calls covering the deep water oil and gas exploration blocks are likely to take place during the year. Organised crime, corruption and violence continue to impact on the business climate.

 

Last update : January 2017

PAYMENT

The common habits of payment in Mexico are basically by checks of wire transfer and in some special cases by credit card.

 

The process that involves the payment depends of the internal rules of the companies, in this country usually the  company’s request some documentation to proceed to made the payment, the documentation will be, as a example:

 

-The articles of incorporation of the company;

-The Tax identification named “Registro Federal de Contribuyentes”;

-The purchase order;

-the approbation of the purchase from the company;

-the proof of delivery and reception of the product and/or service;

- The invoices.

-The information of the bank account;

-The state of the bank account that will be made the payment.

 

Once that the buyer has all the correct information proceed to made the payment by a wire transfer or by check; the check can be post dated in the cases that the companies don’t have enough Money to make the payment; the process of payment will take approximately ten to fifteen days; and is common that the pay is made by a wire transfer.

 

a) COMMERCIAL DOCUMENTS.

 

In Mexico, this are the most common documents related to a commercial act:

 

-INVOICES: Is a commercial document issued by a seller to a buyer, indicated the quantities, products and agreed prices for products or services that the seller has provided the buyer.

 

In terms of debt and collection the invoices with its proper order and proof of the reacceptance of the merchandise proof the commercial relationship between the parties and in terms of the commercial law and agreements regulations the sale agreement  is completed with the object, in this case the product  or the service, and the price agreed by the parties; also in the cases that we do not have a written agreement; so the invoices are the perfect proof in lawsuit that the parties have a sale agreement and the buyer has a pending payment of the debt, that is object of the legal process.

 

-PROMISSORY NOTES:  (CERTIFICATE OF INDEBTEDNESS)is an unconditional promise in writing to pay a person a sum of Money. In Mexico that document usually is use to have a guarantee of payment from the buyer; and is sign by the legal representative of the debtor for an amount that is superior of the total amount of the debt.

 

-CHECKS- (CERTIFICATE OF INDEBTEDNESS): an order for payment of Money on demand, drawn on a banker, and expressed as being payable either to bearer or to (the order of) a named person.

 

Checks can be post dated; it means that the payment will be in the next days that the invoice was delivery to the seller.

 

 

DEBT AND COLLECTION

 

In the pre legal phase the process that is use here in Mexico is initiate with telephone contact, and a written letter send to the debtor in which we notify the debtor about amount of the debt and the intentions that the creditor has to negotiate the payment of the total amount.

 

The next step is visit the debtor personally; in the visit the person who made the managing of the collect, have a better perspective of the situation of the debtor because of the results of that visit we can see if the company still in business, if they have real states, assets, merchandise and rights that can be able to seize in the case that the legal process takes place; and the main purpose is, to know the real reason why they didn’t paid the invoices on time.

 

LEGAL PROCESS PHASE.

 

In terms of Commercial law, we have three types of process that we can initiate against the Debtor.

 

1. PRE-LEGAL PROCESS (MEDIOS PREPARATORIOS A JUICIO EJECUTIVO MERCANTIL).

 

This pre –legal process takes place when we have as a document to proof the pending payment and commercial relationship only INVOICES; we request to the judge the citation of the debtor or its legal representative; then we get the confession and acceptance from the debtor about the debt and the pending payment of it, once we have the confession before the judge as a executive document we are able to initiate legal process named Summary Business Proceeding.

 

This pre –legal process takes approximately two or three months.

 

 

 

2. Summary Business Proceeding.

 

This legal process takes place when we have a Certificate of Indebtedness (Promissory notes, checks, legal confession before the judge of the debtor or its legal representative); in this process when we initiate the lawsuit in the phase of citation we request to the debtor the payment of the total amount of the debt, if the debtor don’t have enough money, we may be able to seize some assets, it could be real states, merchandise, bank accounts, industrial property rights of its trademarks, etc., as a guarantee of the total amount of the debt.

 

Once we seize assets as a guarantee of the debt, the legal process continues until we get the final resolution from the judge, then if we don’t negotiate with the debtor or get the payment of the debt; we initiate the auction of the assets in order to get the recovery f the debt.

 

This legal process takes approximately six to eighteen months, it depends of the case.

 

3. Ordinary Business Proceeding.

 

This is the largest process that establishes our Commerce Law, it takes place when we don’t have any Certificate of Indebtedness, it means we only have a commercial agreement with invoices and all the documents that proof the commercial sale and relationship between the parties.

 

In this types of process we only be able to seizure assets to guarantee the total amount of the debt until we get final sentence that condemn the debtor to pay the total amount of the debt.

 

This legal process takes approximately one to two years.

 

4. Oral Proceeding.

 

This process takes place when the total amount of the debt does not exceed the amount of31,856.68 EUR, as the Ordinary Business Proceeding we only can seizure assets as a guarantee of the debt when we get final sentence that condemn the debtor to pay the total amount of the debt.

 

This process was established by the commerce law since January 11th, 2013 and it takes approximately four to six months.

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