Coface Group

Economic Studies

Country Risk Barometer Q3 2015
Country Risk Barometer Q3 2015

For the fourth consecutive year, global growth will fail to exceed 3%. At the beginning of the year however, this target did not appear unattainable, as the highly expansionary monetary policies in place, combined with the fall in the oil price and less restrictive fiscal policies, were expected to effectively accelerate growth. But this was not the case. Who is at fault? Chiefly the emerging markets, with Russia and Brazil in deep recession, and with growth slowing down more rapidly than expected in China, while failing to take off in South Africa or in Turkey.
Many of the commodities exporting countries are also struggling. In this context, emerging currencies have
depreciated sharply against the dollar. One minor consolation: India is the only major emerging economy which is not a disappointment, with a growth rate of over 7% this year and next year.
In this context, Coface is downgrading several country assessments among emerging markets, particularly in Latin America, which will be in recession this year: Brazil, Ecuador, Chile and Trinidad and Tobago. The level of risk has also increased in Malaysia, Tunisia and Armenia. In contrast, outlook for Hungary has been upgraded to positive, as a symbol of central Europe which is benefitting from the timid Eurozone recovery.

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Last changes on country risk assessments

Country Previous assessment New assessment
Brazil A4 
Under negative watch list B
Chile A2 A3
Ecuador B 
Under negative watch list C
Hungary B B 
Under positive watch list
Malaysia A2 A2 
Under negative watch list

160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.


Last changes on country risk assessments

Countries under negative watch list
Countries under positive watch list
Country Previous assessment New assessment
Armenia C C
Brazil A4 B
Chile A2 A3
Ecuador B C
Hungary B B
Malaysia A2 A2
Trinidad and Tobago A3 A4
Tunisia B B

Economic publications


Coface’s “Panorama” publications aim to help businesses evaluate and guard against risks and make their decisions based on the most relevant, reliable and recent information.
Capitalising on the expertise of our economists, underwriters and specialists in business information and debt recovery, these publications have a dual objective: 
- provide the reader with regular statistical monitoring by means of a quarterly indicator;
- offer content for reflection and analysis by focusing on a particular theme.

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