While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries.
We have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.
In five of them (Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru and Sri Lanka), the quality of the business climate is similar to the one in the BRICS. Business climate being more difficult in the five remaining countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia), it could take more time for them to fully benefit from this high growth potential…
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Which emerging countries will take over from the BRICS ?
After 10 years of frenetic growth, the BRICS are slowing down sharply: for 2014, Coface forecasts growth of on average 3.2 points lower than the average growth these countries registered over the previous decade. At the same time, other emerging countries are accelerating their development.
The upturn in the advanced economies (1.9% forecast for 2014, after 1.2% in 2013) is reflected in the upwards revision of the country risk assessments for the United Kingdom and the United States, which join the best risk category.
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160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
Our evaluations are based on:
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- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.
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