Xavier Durand : "Global trade is resilient; it creates too much value for it to stop"
Coface CEO Xavier Durand analyzes the war in Iran and its short- and medium-term risks for French newspaper Le Figaro.
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US: ‘reciprocal tariffs’ go away, uncertainty stays
On 20 February, the US Supreme Court invalidated the ‘reciprocal tariffs’ imposed by the Trump administration. This is a major legal setback, but it does not change the overall trade policy landscape. The United States continues to maintain historically high tariffs, and the environment remains unstable for businesses.
Middle East escalation: Energy at the center, risks far beyond
The military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran is putting extreme pressure on energy markets. Although no major supply disruptions have been reported yet, the risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz pose a threat to the global economy if the conflict continues.
How far will power struggles go?
Geopolitical tensions are intensifying: what are the consequences for globalisation and economic stability? At the Coface Country Risk Conference on February 17, four experts share their analyses of these geostrategic rivalries that are impacting global trade.
Risk Review: 2026, a moment of truth for the global economy?
Momentum for the global economy has been varied moving into 2026. We expect growth of +2.6% this year – a very minor downtick on +2.8% in 2025 – despite an international environment marked by persistent geopolitical, financial and social risks.
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After twenty years of deadlock, the EU and India reach a landmark agreement
After nearly twenty years of stop-start negotiations, the EU and India have finalized one of the most ambitious free trade agreements (FTAs) of the last decade, opening up their markets while protecting sensitive sectors. The benefits are expected to be gradual, but already offer tangible prospects for goods, services, and investments on both sides.
Tin is riding high on the metals market’s latest surge
A key metal in the electronics industry — solder alone accounts for 50% of global demand — tin is benefiting greatly from energy and digital transitions. However, supply growth remains limited, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Myanmar, which is expected to lead to a supply deficit as early as 2026, the first since 2021.
Business insolvencies are expected to increase by 2.8% worldwide in 2026
In 2026, business insolvencies are expected to rise slightly again, against a backdrop of gradually easing financing costs. Behind this apparent stabilisation lies a still high level of fragility, particularly in the construction, chemical and textile industries. A rise of just 25 basis points in interest rates on business loans would be enough to upset an easing trend.
Nearly half of European recovery funds still unspent
As the NextGenerationEU program draws to a close, only 58% of the funds from the Recovery and Resilience Facility have been disbursed, leaving nearly €270 billion to be disbursed by the end of 2026. This under-absorption weakens the growth momentum and structural objectives set by the plan.
Economic outlook for 2026: preparing European businesses for turbulence
The year 2025 marked a turning point for the global economy. Between the Trump shock, Chinese overcapacity and geopolitical tensions, companies must redefine their strategies. Growth, insolvencies, changing margins: our experts analyse the challenges of 2026 and share their advice on how to strengthen your company's resilience in the face of the turbulence ahead.
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea: why maritime trade is (still) not smooth sailing
Two years ago, on November 19, 2023, the Galaxy Leader, a Bahamian-flagged roll-on/roll-off ship chartered by the Japanese company Nippon Yusen, was attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea. Less than two months after the start of the conflict between Hamas and Israel, this episode marked the beginning of a series of more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels in the area, claimed by the Yemeni organization in support of Hamas.
Once upon a wine: is the European wine industry at a turning point?
In early December, the European Commission approved a support plan for the wine industry, which is facing unfavorable economic conditions and growing structural difficulties. Although substantial, this plan only addresses part of the problem for the time being, overlooking the decline in European consumption and export difficulties.
US: Insolvencies rise above pre-pandemic levels for the first time
US business failures have reached a historic milestone: for the first time since the pandemic began, they have consistently exceeded 2019 levels. Marcos Carias, our economist for North America, provides insights into this trend and its implications for the coming months.
Nickel has a future despite low prices
Nickel prices are at a five-year low, but the long-term outlook tells a different story. Read our expert's analysis to uncover the trends and long-term outlook.
Data centers in the AI Age: stakes, limits and risks of a Trillion-Dollar gamble
Faced with the explosion of AI, data centers are experiencing unprecedented growth, driven by record investments and an unprecedented concentration in the United States. But can this frantic race deliver on the promise of a sustainable transformation of the economy, or does it expose the sector to new risks and major imbalances?
US-China trade agreement: a tactical truce, not a strategic shift
On 30 October, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump met for the first time since 2019, on the sidelines of the APEC summit in South Korea. The two powers reached a tactical agreement allowing the United States to gain time to diversify its sources of rare earth supplies and China to manage deflationary pressures and pursue technological self-reliance.
2025 Latin America corporate payment survey: longer payment terms and rising delays
Coface publishes its 2025 survey on corporate payment behavior in Latin America, conducted among more than 300 companies across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. In a fragile economic environment, companies have extended their payment delays to support business activity, while the frequency of late payments has increased significantly.
Tariffs on Wood: Trump raises the tone, but little effect on trading partners is expected
Wood has been added to the growing list of products subject to specific tariffs in the United States. These new measures could reshape sourcing strategies and pricing dynamics for importers and manufacturers. Find out what this could mean for your business.
South Africa stuck in a rut: how can it escape the trap of economic stagnation?
Nearly two decades after joining the BRICS, South Africa has failed to deliver on its development promises. Per capita GDP in 2025 is below 2007 levels, with a marked deterioration in social indicators: unemployment, growing poverty and severely degraded infrastructure. Unlike its emerging peers in Asia and Latin America, the ‘Rainbow Nation’ has remained mired in low growth, hampered by two major structural constraints: the failure of the energy system and deep distortions in the labor market.
Rice: lifting of Indian restrictions causes global prices to plummet to their lowest level since 2017
Rice prices have fallen 35% in one year to their lowest level since 2017 (around US$360 per ton) following the lifting of Indian export restrictions. After three years of extreme volatility, the market is facing a glut (541 million tons produced in 2024), pushing prices down and upsetting the balance for global producers and importers.
Coface Risk Review October 2025: The calm during the storm
The global economy weathered the trade turmoil of the first half of 2025, but the coming quarters will see a spreading of the longer-term effects. The October 2025 Coface Risk Review analyses global dynamics, placing its focus on the surge in social and political risk, and the strategic challenges facing the Gulf countries.
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