Coface Group

Economic Studies

Country Risk Barometer : Key challenges of 2016
Country Risk Barometer

After US households in 2007-2008 and Eurozone states in 2011-2012, emerging countries are now getting their turn at the epicentre of the storm, in part because of excessive debt. How did that happen? Growth cut in half in the emerging world between 2010 and 2015, highly expansionary monetary policies after the Lehman Brothers crisis, and the drop in commodity prices since mid-2014 are all part of the answer.
In this environment of increased risks for companies, Coface is downgrading a number of ratings of emerging countries or revising their outlook to negative, in Latin America (Brazil for the 2nd time in less than a year), Africa (South Africa, By Coface Group Economists Algeria, Zambia, Tanzania, Gabon, Namibia, Madagascar), the Middle East (Bahrain), and Asia (Kazakhstan).
 

 Download the publication - Download the country risk assessment map 

Last changes on country risk assessments

Country Previous assessment New assessment
Hong Kong A1 A1 
Under negative watch list
Hungary B 
Under positive watch list A4
Italy B B 
Under positive watch list
Japan A1 A1 
Under negative watch list
Latvia B B 
Under positive watch list

160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
 
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
 
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.

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Last changes on country risk assessments

Countries under negative watch list
Countries under positive watch list
Country Previous assessment New assessment
Algeria A4 B
Bahrain A4 B
Brazil B C
Canada A1 A2
Finland A2 A2
Gabon B C
Hong Kong A1 A1
Hungary B A4
Italy B B
Ivory Coast C C
Japan A1 A1
Kazakhstan B B
Latvia B B
Madagascar C D
Namibia A3 A3
South Africa A4 B
Taiwan A1 A1
Tanzania, United Republic of B C
Zambia C C

Economic publications

ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE IN CONCENTRATED FORM

Coface’s “Panorama” publications aim to help businesses evaluate and guard against risks and make their decisions based on the most relevant, reliable and recent information.
 
Capitalising on the expertise of our economists, underwriters and specialists in business information and debt recovery, these publications have a dual objective: 
 
- provide the reader with regular statistical monitoring by means of a quarterly indicator;
- offer content for reflection and analysis by focusing on a particular theme.

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