This panorama first contains a study on the strength of the British recovery. Thanks to vigorous growth since the second quarter of 2012, we anticipate the UK economy to get back to its pre-crisis level in the third quarter of 2014.
A positive short term economic context, like dynamic corporate investment, supported by the flexible monetary policy of the Central Bank, led us to upgrade our risk assessment for the UK to A2.
This appraisal is strenghtened by the recent decisions by the monetary authorities to cool down the real estate bubble.
Then we move on in details to the sectoral level, with an analysis from the risk underwriting director for Coface UK. Working in the field, he is on the whole optimistic about their evolution, but points out some remaining significant weak-nesses in the British economy, in particular the indebtedness of the private sector and the persistent current account deficit.
After a worrying process of de-industrialisation, the study pays particular attention to the renewal of the industry, in sectors which already display impressive successes : the automotive, aero-nautics and pharmaceutical industries.
Thanks to considerable investment in R&D and remarkable innovations, these sectors are composed of competitive firms which have managed in a relatively short period of time to become world leaders.
Finally, we present in this panorama the last changes in our country ratings (which measure the ability of companies in any given country to make payments), as well as an update on our analyses for countries that are currently under intense media coverage : Russia, Brazil, Italy, India or Algeria.
Download this publication :The british recovery : miracle or mirage
- 5% growth projected for 2014 on the back of successful diversification policy
- Favourable business environment, supported by new company law to improve transparency
- Debt profile improves. Financing needs of government-related entities (GRE) continues to be a question
Last changes on country risk assessments
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160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
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