In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. After a long period of gloominess, the economic weather became more favorable despite the Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This part of the world has managed to benefit from structural reforms, public finances consolidation, significant foreign investments, abundant global liquidity and more stable political environments. The fall in global raw materials prices reshuffles the deck and the sky could turn grey. However, situations differ from one country to another. Some are suffering and will continue to suffer from the deteriorating weather while others, which already started to diversify their economies, should be protected from the storm.
With this issue we are also publishing our quarterly barometer of worldwide trends in country risk. We explain why we have upgraded our risk assessments for Portugal, the Czech Republic and Vietnam. We also explain why we give a negative assessment for the prospects for Algeria, Bahrain, Canada, Gabon, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania and why we have downgraded our assessment for China.
Readers will find updated reports for some of these countries setting out their economic situation in more detail at the end of the panorama. Readers will also find updated country analysis for Angola, Argentina and Egypt.
Although growth was accelerated by the high prices of commodities on which sub-Saharan Africa is highly dependent, the region must now deal with the effects of falling oil prices. The 45 countries screened by Coface are affected to different degrees.
Last changes on country risk assessments
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160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.
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