While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries.
We have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.
In five of them (Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru and Sri Lanka), the quality of the business climate is similar to the one in the BRICS. Business climate being more difficult in the five remaining countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia), it could take more time for them to fully benefit from this high growth potential…
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Which emerging countries will take over from the BRICS ?
Restructuring and bankruptcy remain increasingly used procedures.
Activity in Brazil remains lacklustre, inflation above targets and interest rates are amongst the highest in the world. Various indexes show that confidence in Brazil remains down, while the low investment ratio continues to deteriorate.
Romania at the front line of economic growth in 2013 – but will it catch up after the contraction in 2014?
Romania’s economic performance has made it one of the leaders in Europe’s recovery. Its growth has exceeded expectations, with GDP rising by 3.5% in 2013. Significant contributions came from the agricultural and industrial sectors, in particular from car production supplying mainly foreign customers. Although Romania will not continue this pace of growth in 2014, the outlook remains positive.
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