While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries.
We have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.
In five of them (Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru and Sri Lanka), the quality of the business climate is similar to the one in the BRICS. Business climate being more difficult in the five remaining countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia), it could take more time for them to fully benefit from this high growth potential…
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Which emerging countries will take over from the BRICS ?
Coface expects a considerable slowdown of GDP in 2014 (at +1.3% in 2014, down from +2.5% in 2013), due to household consumption growing at a slower pace, investments losing momentum and a weak trade balance. Coface considers 2015 to be a turning point, boosting GDP in the medium term.
Prior to the forthcoming presidential elections in August 2014, Coface is cautious in its assessment of corporate risks in Turkey. If political tensions rise again, as happened in December and January, investors may flee the country which could result in a fluctuation in Forex markets. Such a situation would negatively impact the corporate sector’s external debt stock, already at a record high.
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