Coface Group

Economic Studies

Reality Check: Corporate Payment Trend and Sectorial Risk in China

While the 2008-2009 global crisis had highlighted emerging market resilience, game-changing events have taken place in those emerging countries since May 2013 indeed. The capital outflows linked to political, social and financial tensions attest to the heightened vulnerabilities of certain emerging countries.
We have tried to identify which countries are likely today to take over from them, by paying particular attention to the importance of the outlook for supply and hence for production, rather than for demand and hence consumption.
In five of them (Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Peru and Sri Lanka), the quality of the business climate is similar to the one in the BRICS. Business climate being more difficult in the five remaining countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia), it could take more time for them to fully benefit from this high growth potential…
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Which emerging countries will take over from the BRICS ?

Last changes on country risk assessments

Country Previous assessment New assessment
Austria A2 Under positive watch list A1
Germany A2 Under positive watch list A1
Kenya C Under positive watch list B
Nigeria D Under positive watch list C
Spain B B Under positive watch list

160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.


Last changes on country risk assessments

Countries under negative watch list
Countries under positive watch list
Country Previous assessment New assessment
Austria A2 A1
Germany A2 A1
Kenya C B
Latvia B B
Nigeria D C
Rwanda D C
Spain B B
Sri Lanka C C
United Kingdom A3 A2

Economic publications


Coface’s “Panorama” publications aim to help businesses evaluate and guard against risks and make their decisions based on the most relevant, reliable and recent information.
Capitalising on the expertise of our economists, underwriters and specialists in business information and debt recovery, these publications have a dual objective: 
- provide the reader with regular statistical monitoring by means of a quarterly indicator;
- offer content for reflection and analysis by focusing on a particular theme.

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