Coface Group

Economic Studies

Global country risk outlook - june 2015
Global country risk outlook - june 2015

In this panorama, we first set out a study examining the economic situation and outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. After a long period of gloominess, the economic weather became more favorable despite the Lehmann Brothers bankruptcy in 2008 and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. This part of the world has managed to benefit from structural reforms, public finances consolidation, significant foreign investments, abundant global liquidity and more stable political environments. The fall in global raw materials prices reshuffles the deck and the sky could turn grey. However, situations differ from one country to another. Some are suffering and will continue to suffer from the deteriorating weather while others, which already started to diversify their economies, should be protected from the storm.
With this issue we are also publishing our quarterly barometer of worldwide trends in country risk. We explain why we have upgraded our risk assessments for Portugal, the Czech Republic and Vietnam. We also explain why we give a negative assessment for the prospects for Algeria, Bahrain, Canada, Gabon, Madagascar, South Africa and Tanzania and why we have downgraded our assessment for China.
Readers will find updated reports for some of these countries setting out their economic situation in more detail at the end of the panorama. Readers will also find updated country analysis for Angola, Argentina and Egypt.
 

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Last changes on country risk assessments

Country Previous assessment New assessment
Algeria A4 A4 
Under negative watch list
Bahrain A4 A4 
Under negative watch list
Canada A1 A1 
Under negative watch list
China A3 
Under negative watch list A4
Czech Republic A4 
Under positive watch list A3

160 country evaluations, drawn up on the basis of macroeconomic, financial and political data, are made freely available.
Regularly updated, they provide an estimate of the average credit risk on a country’s businesses. This is an invaluable tool, giving an indication of a country’s potential influence on businesses’ financial commitments.
 
Our evaluations are based on:
- our macroeconomic expertise in assessing country risk,
- our contextual business expertise,
- our microeconomic expertise built up over 60 years of payment experience.
 
Our analyses use a seven-level ranking. In ascending order of risk, these are: A1, A2, A3, A4, B, C and D.

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Last changes on country risk assessments

Countries under negative watch list
Countries under positive watch list
Country Previous assessment New assessment
Algeria A4 A4
Bahrain A4 A4
Canada A1 A1
China A3 A4
Czech Republic A4 A3
Gabon B B
Madagascar C C
Portugal B A4
South Africa A4 A4
Tanzania, United Republic of B B
Viet Nam C B

Economic publications

ECONOMIC KNOWLEDGE IN CONCENTRATED FORM

Coface’s “Panorama” publications aim to help businesses evaluate and guard against risks and make their decisions based on the most relevant, reliable and recent information.
 
Capitalising on the expertise of our economists, underwriters and specialists in business information and debt recovery, these publications have a dual objective: 
 
- provide the reader with regular statistical monitoring by means of a quarterly indicator;
- offer content for reflection and analysis by focusing on a particular theme.

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