2024 Country Risk: Are we seeing the first signs of a “new deal” in emerging economies?

Over and above the division with the West, The Global South countries’ interests are also different and even divergent. Their macroeconomic performances are also highly heterogeneous, as are their short- and medium-term growth prospects. Against a backdrop of re-globalisation, which countries will be the winners on tomorrow's world scene?

Is the reconfiguration of trade flows an opportunity for emerging countries?

“This multipolar, interconnected, antagonistic and, at first sight, disorganised global economy opens up a wide range of opportunities for emerging economies" - Bruno de MOURA FERNANDES, Head of Macroeconomic Research at Coface.

 

Is the Chinese slowdown temporary or is it set to last? Can India really take up the slack?

Despite the continuing bleak growth prospects and the reshaping of the world order, it is difficult for companies to leave China. It is still a massive market, with the most comprehensive industrial supply chain in the world, and a labour force that is still very productive, despite being more costly now.

- Bernard AW, Head of Economic Research at Coface for Asia-Pacific 

 

Rich in raw materials, will the countries of Latin America and the Middle East share a common destiny or diverge?

“Latin America countries could benefit from this windfall, thanks to the availability of raw materials and the moderate distance that separates them from the United States, compared to China for example. However, there are many hurdles that need to be overcome (infrastructure and foreign investment) to increase their attractiveness " - Patrica KRAUSE, Coface economist, Latin America region.

Commodities will continue to play a key role in 2024, but the Gulf have started to invest in diversifications strategies since 10 years (tourism, construction, transport, finance, etc.). It can work in the long run, but, in the short run, those diversification strategies make them competitors against each other.

- Seltem IYIGÜN, Coface economist, Middle East & Turkey region.

 

Is the social and political unrest seen in Africa in recent years mortgaging the prospects of a continent that continues to arouse covetousness?

The main reason as to why African countries are not yet integrated in broader value-chains is due to lackluster business environments due to large infrastructure gaps, governance shortcomings and security issues in some cases. However, there are several countries on the African continent (Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, Tanzania) are increasingly attractive in this regard" - Aroni CHAUDHURI, Coface economist, Africa region.

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