Moderate growth, supported by the rise of AI and domestic demand
Malaysian growth is expected to moderate again in 2026. The international context is marked by increased protectionism, while the economy is heavily dependent on exports. The 19% tariff levy imposed by the US – Malaysia's second largest trading partner, accounting for 13% of exports in 2024 – could weigh on sales. In addition, the normalisation of exports, following their strong growth in early 2025 in anticipation of the Trump administration's protectionist measures, will also contribute to the slowdown in their growth. However, strong global demand for semiconductors and data centres, driven by the rise of artificial intelligence and electronic recycling, will continue to support Malaysian exports. This momentum should offset the contraction in sales of petroleum products, the second-largest export item, which has been affected by low global energy prices. The New Industrial Master Plan 2030 (NIMP2030), combined with major infrastructure projects, aims to stimulate growth in the electronics, aerospace, and petrochemical sectors by attracting significant foreign direct investment. High capital spending will support public investment. Private consumption will remain buoyant, supported by moderate inflation and rising incomes. The latter is due to the strong labour market—unemployment stood at 3% in 2025—and favourable government measures such as civil service pay rises. Last, services will remain the main driver of the economy (60% of GDP in 2024) and will be buoyed by trade, ICT, financial services—particularly Islamic finance—and tourism. The latter will be stimulated by spending related to the Visit Malaysia 2026 campaign and the increase in the influx of Chinese visitors owing to the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia.
In 2026, inflation is expected to accelerate slightly, driven by new taxes and the rationalisation of subsidies. In particular, the gradual introduction of a targeted subsidy scheme for RON95 fuel will lead to higher prices for consumers excluded from the scheme, who will now be subject to market prices. However, lower global energy and food prices should ease these pressures, keeping inflation within the central bank's target range of 1.5% to 3%. The key interest rate is therefore expected to remain stable at 2.75% in 2026.
Continued fiscal consolidation, high but manageable public debt
The government will maintain its fiscal consolidation target, aiming for a further reduction in the deficit in 2026. The budget forecasts a decline in non-tax revenues on back of lower dividends paid by the national oil company Petroliam due to the fall in global energy prices. The focus will be on controlling operating expenses and rationalisation of subsidies will be the main lever. Measures already undertaken include the elimination of the subsidy on eggs and the reform of the subsidy on RON95 fuel. The savings generated will be redirected toward development spending, particularly in human capital, infrastructure and social support, with a minimum target of 3% of GDP. At the same time, increases in excise duties on alcohol and tobacco, the introduction of a carbon tax, and the extension of the sales and services tax will support tax revenue growth. In addition, the acceleration of digitalisation should contribute to better revenue collection and stronger governance. Last, public debt remains moderate and manageable, although close to the legal ceiling of 65% of GDP. It is predominantly domestic (76%) and almost entirely denominated in local currency (98%). Nearly two-thirds of the outstanding debt consists of long-term securities (over five years), which reduces refinancing risks.
The current account balance is expected to remain in surplus, thanks in particular to exports of goods (especially electronics and electrical goods) and a reduction in the services deficit amid buoyant tourism. However, this surplus could be undermined by increased global protectionism, particularly in the US. The repatriation of profits by foreign companies and remittances from foreign workers will contribute to persistent deficits in the income account. Although international reserves are increasing thanks to the recurring current account surplus and foreign investment flows, their ratio to imports and their ability to cover short-term external debt are declining. They currently cover only four to five months of imports and nearly 80% of short-term external debt. Last, external debt represented 66% of GDP in 2024, nearly three-quarters of which is owed by private debtors. In addition, three-quarters of this debt is denominated in foreign currency.
Relative political stability
The May 2023 elections resulted in a divided political landscape marked by ethnic and religious differences. None of the three main coalitions—Pakatan Harapan (PH), Perikatan Nasional (PN) and Barisan Nasional (BN)—managed to win an absolute majority. Thanks to the king's intervention, PH (81 of 222 parliamentary seats), BN (30) and several regional parties—Sarawak (23) and Sabah (6)—agreed to form a coalition government. Anwar Ibrahim, leader of PH, was appointed Prime Minister. Despite the diversity of interests within the government, political stability is expected to continue until the general elections scheduled for February 2028 at the latest, thanks to cordial relations between PH and BN and a weakened opposition (69 seats for the PN). However, the pro-Malay factions in his coalition—notably UMNO within BN, the historic rival of Anwar and PH—are forcing Anwar to maintain affirmative action policies in favour of the Bumiputera people (nearly 70% of the population) otherwise he risks losing their support, which will compromise his parliamentary majority.
In spite of escalating tensions between the US and Japan on the one hand, and China on the other, Malaysia is determined to maintain its relations with all three countries. This is despite Malaysia’s dispute with Beijing over the South China Sea, as China is a major trading partner and source of investment. Malaysia has signed a reciprocal trade agreement with Washington that sets a 19% tariff on its exports to the US, while granting exemptions for around 12% of its exports, including aerospace equipment, pharmaceuticals, rubber, cocoa and palm oil. In return, Malaysia has committed to importing US goods, including aircraft and semiconductors worth an estimated USD 170 billion over five years. In addition, the country has deepened its security cooperation with the US and Japan. Last, it is seeking to diversify its trading partners by concluding new free trade agreements. After signing an FTA with EFTA (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein) in June 2025, negotiations with the European Union for a similar agreement will continue in 2026.

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