A key metal in the electronics industry — solder alone accounts for 50% of global demand — tin is benefiting greatly from energy and digital transitions. However, supply growth remains limited, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Myanmar, which is expected to lead to a supply deficit as early as 2026, the first since 2021.
Since the beginning of the year, tin has seen the sharpest price increase among non-ferrous metals: +70% year-on-year, to USD 50,000/ton. In the very short term, the high volatility of tin prices can be explained by speculative pressures linked to low stocks on the main metal exchanges (LME, SHFE)1 .
There is no doubt that the demand for data‑based technologies fuels the recent rise in tin prices. We expect average prices to hover around US$ 45,000/ton (+40% YoY) over the first half of the year
says Simon Lacoume, Coface sectorial economist.
Non-ferrous metals: a generalized upward trend
From copper to aluminum and nickel, non-ferrous metals have rebounded strongly in recent months, with a marked acceleration in January. The LME index is up 34% year-on-year, compared with only 6% in 2025 versus 2024.
While the energy transition is supporting the trend, it does not explain everything: the digital transition, which is very metal-intensive (data centers, semiconductors), combined with speculative pressures, is accentuating the momentum. Tin is a perfect example of this.
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An emerging supply deficit and China's continued dominance
Overall, refined tin production is expected to grow by 3% in 2026, following 2% growth in 2025. This will be insufficient to offset the expected 3.5% increase in demand in 2026. The market is therefore expected to shift into deficit this year, a situation that is likely to continue in the years to come. Finally, in the longer term, the main challenge will be the expansion of mining capacity, as the depletion of exploited deposits is a major vulnerability for the entire value chain.
China accounts for 50% of global refined tin production. Despite anti-involution measures, we estimate that Chinese production will remain robust in 2026 (+5%). Tin remains a strategic asset in China's quest for self-sufficiency in data management infrastructure. Conversely, production in neighboring Indonesia2 could decline, given regulatory constraints and growing aversion to mining projects. Domestic production is expected to fall by 2% in 2026 (after -1% the previous year).
The main vulnerability lies in tin ore supplies, particularly from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Myanmar, which together account for 20% of global production and 60% of Chinese tin ore imports. In the DRC, frequent skirmishes between M23 rebel forces and the Congolese regular army are having a negative impact on mining operations in North Kivu and regularly disrupting mining, particularly at the Bisie mine (nearly 6% of global production). In Myanmar, a series of operational uncertainties continues to limit tin extraction to levels below original market forecasts.
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An increasingly robust demand outlook, constrained by limited inventory cover
In the very short term, following the surge in copper prices, speculative spillover effects have amplified the upward trend in other metal prices, including tin. In addition, 2025 low market stocks have also supported the price increase in the past few months. Restocking while prices were surging only added fuel to January’s bullish momentum (figure 3). Prices volatility should now begin to moderate as speculation winds down.
Over the longer term, industrial demand for tin is expected to keep trending higher. The surge in electronic components demand will accelerate further as data‑based technologies request metals-intensive infrastructures. According to SEMI’s latest report, global silicon wafer shipments are expected to rise by 5.2% YoY in 2026 (after +5.4% in 2025), to 13,500 million square inches (MSI). Innovation will improve efficiency, but not nearly enough to contain the surging demand driven by digitalization.
Strong demand, constrained by limited stocks
In the very short term, the surge in copper prices spread to other metals, including tin. In addition, relatively low levels on the main stock exchanges contributed to this surge. The rebuilding of stocks at the same time as the bullish episode exacerbated the trend. However, price volatility should ease as speculative movements subside.
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In the longer term, demand for tin is expected to continue to grow, driven by the rise of semiconductors and data storage infrastructure, which are voracious consumers of metals. According to the latest SEMI3 report, global shipments of silicon wafers are expected to increase by 5.2% this year, after +5.4% in 2025, to 13,500 MSI4. Innovation will certainly reduce metal intensity, but not enough to offset the growing demand linked to digitalization.
Go further
> Deep dive into our risk analysis of the Metals sector
1 London Metal Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange
2 Indonesia is the world's second largest producer of tin ore.
3 Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International is a global industry association for the electronics and semiconductor manufacturing supply chain.
4 MSI stands for ‘million square inches’ (Anglo-Saxon unit of area). 1 MSI = 645.16 m²
