To mark the group's 80th anniversary, Xavier Durand, CEO of Coface, gave an interview to Le Point magazine. It was an opportunity to share his vision of the global economic and geopolitical situation, list the main risks for 2026 and the solutions available to companies to deal with them.
This year, Coface, a specialist in credit insurance and the world's third-largest player in this sector, will celebrate its 80th anniversary. Its Chief Executive Officer, Xavier Durand, will also celebrate ten years at the helm of this publicly traded group, which was publicly listed from 1946 to 1994.
Since the arrival of this globetrotting Polytechnique graduate, who has worked for GE Capital, Hyundai Capital and GMF Assurances, among others, this company, which operates in 200 territories, has seen its exposure increase from €492 billion to €715 billion and its turnover from €1.4 billion to €1.8 billion. Its main activity is to help companies, large and small, insure their invoices against international risks, particularly non-payment. This gives it a global view of world trade.
Coface, global crisis radar
Le Point: Your group is celebrating its 80th anniversary. However, it remains relatively unknown to our readers. If you had to describe it to them in a few words, what would you say?
Xavier Durand: In our main market, trade credit insurance, we are the third largest player worldwide, with around half the turnover of the leader (Allianz Trade) and 30% less than the second largest (Atradius). It is a highly concentrated sector, 70% of which is dominated by three European companies. Our specialty is to prevent the risk of non-payment.
When a Brazilian or Chinese customer sends foodstuffs to the other side of the world, they want to be sure that they will be paid once their cargo has left. Our added value is to prevent them from making a “big mistake” that could be fatal. A quarter of bankruptcies worldwide are linked to significant unpaid debts. We also sell data, which accounts for 4-5% of our revenue and is growing by 15% per year. This allows us to approach companies that do not insure their invoices (only 7% of them do) but need information to manage their suppliers or risks.
In an increasingly unpredictable economic and geopolitical world, what tools do you have at your disposal to find your way?
To navigate this turbulent world, Coface relies on two complementary pillars.
On the one hand, we have economists spread across all continents who monitor the evolution of a wide range of data (GDP, trade, commodity prices, regulations, social risks, etc.). For example, when the US administration announces tariff measures, they can very quickly assess the impact on 13 sectors in 200 countries.
On the other hand, Coface is a machine for capturing microeconomic data. We do this thanks to our customers, as we guarantee around €730 billion in credit risk across 5 million companies, process 15,000 underwriting cases per day, and 1,400 unpaid debt cases per week. This combination of macroeconomic research with the reality of balance sheets and unpaid debts gives us a unique perspective.
Beneath the surface, weak signals
Conflicts between states, the artificial intelligence bubble, financial deregulation... The threats are legion. Which ones do you think are the most significant?
In 2020, the world rediscovered the risk of pandemics. Two years later, geopolitical risks returned with the war in Ukraine. And now, new dangers are emerging. Yet, what strikes me is the resilience of trade. Globalization is not dead, it is being reshaped.
Trade is like water: it always finds a way! Economies cannot be decoupled overnight. Obviously, it is not easy to predict the most significant dangers. AI is a major technological shift. While there may be a bubble, it is not the most serious systemic risk...
I am more concerned about the danger of a debt crisis like that of 2008-2009.
Debt is the fuel of the economy. If confidence between lenders and borrowers breaks, the system grinds to a halt. Today, governments have much less room for maneuver to absorb a new financial crisis than they did fifteen years ago. This is something to watch very closely.
Debt, AI, geopolitics: where is the real danger?
Europe seems lost in the face of the United States and China, two bellicose giants that are galloping ahead while we dawdle. How can it regain control of its destiny?
Our continent has undeniable assets, but it remains fragmented. Furthermore, we have built a regulatory Europe to harmonize, while other blocs have invested heavily to conquer. The fundamental difference today is speed. The United States and China are deploying colossal amounts of capital with a dirigiste vision in key sectors.
In Europe, governance among 27 countries is incredibly slow and complex. Mario Draghi's report made the right diagnosis, but its implementation remains uncertain.
If we want to stay in the race, we must move towards “more Europe”, with an integrated capital market, a common defense, and a single regulation for the digital sector. Without this, we will struggle to maintain our position.
With one news story seemingly chasing another, there is little talk now about Donald Trump's aggressive customs policy. Yet this policy gave our companies a scare last year. Looking back, how do you analyze its impact?
We feared the worst, but the reality was more nuanced. First, there were many negotiated exemptions. Then, trade reorganized itself around “connector countries” such as Mexico and Vietnam, which serve as intermediaries for China. We talk about average tariffs of 17%, but the observed rate is around 11%. This is significant, but not apocalyptic.
For the time being, it is the margins of American companies that have absorbed most of the shock, and to a lesser extent consumers, with price increases for some products. Some of our European clients have also been affected, but the impact has varied depending on the sector and country. It has been less severe in France because it is less exposed to the United States than Germany or Switzerland.
France, a solid country... but weakened by uncertainty
What image does France convey to the international investors you meet during your many trips?
My foreign contacts have a mixed image of France. On the one hand, they recognize the quality of its infrastructure and workforce, its carbon-free energy and its centers of excellence (luxury goods, aeronautics, nuclear power). On the other hand, they perceive it as a country with overly complex administrative and social structures.
What worries them most now is political and budgetary uncertainty. The economy abhors uncertainty.
With a high deficit and an unstable political situation, France risks seeing investors adopt a wait-and-see attitude until the next presidential election.
What avenues do you see for turning the situation around?
The global battle is being fought over the ability to finance technology and industrial transformation. We therefore need to create an environment that is favorable to talent and capital. The key is to attract massive investment in French innovation. However, the current budget, constrained by the urgency of the deficit, unfortunately seems to be moving away from this long-term goal.
In France, 2025 is expected to end with around 69,000 bankruptcies, surpassing the 2009 record (63,000),” according to your latest report on economic outlook. Is the French economy in a deep and structural crisis?
I fear that we have gone beyond the stage of post-Covid normalization. The “whatever it takes” approach has kept many companies artificially alive. With the end of the lifeline, we have seen a catch-up in bankruptcies. What is notable is that this now affects previously healthy and larger companies, and no longer only very small businesses. However, this phenomenon should not be overinterpreted, as it is not unique to France: the level of bankruptcies is at its highest in ten years in most major economies, including Germany.
Go further, attend the 30th Country Risk Conference
Xavier Durand and Coface economists, alongside CEO from major global groups, will outline the risks for 2026 at the Coface Country Risk Conference on 17 February. The must-attend event for business leaders.
